A few words from your favorite yapper:
The poll results speak volumes, but we need to be more precise. The game has been marketed at various times over the past few years. A few years ago, Dave shared some graphs showing when and for how long the game was marketed during the first two years of his ownership. I'm too lazy to dig them up now. When you market a product, the marketing pays off if the cost is less than the retention rate multiplied by the net profit of the product you're advertising. AtWar faces challenges on both fronts:
1. Retention Rate
1.1 Brsjak made some excellent points about the retention rate. A proper AtWar game demands an investment of 2.5+ hours from a player's schedule. What I'd add to Brsjak's points is that, on average, people now have less time - or are less willing - to spend on a single game. Both active and casual gamers prefer shorter game sessions today compared to 2014. I use 2014 as a reference because it's when I started playing AtWar. If we compare 2014 to 2024, the average game length in League of Legends, for instance, has decreased from 35-40 minutes to 25-30 minutes - a reduction of about 30%. This isn't by chance; similar trends can be seen in other long-standing games, which have also shortened playtime.
1.2 The learning curve is steep, particularly in competitive play, which has the highest learning curve. Competitive play is difficult to learn, with very few skilled players willing to share their knowledge and invest time in mentoring new players. This has always been the case, with the exception of a few major training clans created in 2013, which helped foster an active competitive scene from 2014 to 2016. Personally, I wouldn't have stayed in the game if a weirdo named Tito hadn't messaged me while I was playing Turkey in a world game. Before that, I had zero communication with the community or any players. The problem with training clans is that no one wants to run them anymore, and simply creating an "academy" branch within a clan to train new players doesn't work. Illyria and a few other former big clans tried creating academies, but only 2 or 3 players from these stayed longer than a year. Players who decide to train newcomers have to give up competing for the season's trophy. The two most successful training clans, JNA and Winterfell, together nurtured over 50 players in 1.5 years. For JNA, the result was a 2nd place trophy after two years when the training clan transitioned into a competitive one. This could be seen as the ultimate goal of such clans - to form a competitive base with their own players. Winterfell never won a seasonal trophy. Training clans could now compete for the most games played trophy of the season at least, an improvement...
1.3 Scenarios share similar issues. Mapmakers spend hours creating them, only for them to be played a few times and then to be forgotten. Unfortunately, it's up to the mapmaker to cultivate their own player base. Aetius's WW1 scenario arrived at the right time, during AtWar's peak activity, and players were willing to invest time in playing it. His scenarios paved the way for a few prominent mapmakers and dozens of active scenario players. Sadly, only Dire as mapmaker remained active from that part of the scenario community, along with about 20 familiar scenario players. We share a Discord server, which helps fill casual games, but this isn't a sustainable model for retaining new players. Players are too focused on winning and don't give newcomers a chance in these games. It's becoming increasingly difficult to fill these scenarios. Moreover, there are no guides on how to play these scenarios, so if you're not in the cartographer Discord, you won't even know the game rules, let alone the map mechanics.
2. Profitability Issues
2.1 Unpopular opinion: Playing AtWar is too cheap to be profitable for its owner. Similar browser games are much more expensive for their player base, with monthly premium subscriptions ranging from $10 to $15. I've never seen a game of this genre offer a lifetime premium option - except AtWar - especially not for a price under three figures. While this may be good for short-term cash flow, it severely limits long-term income. Dave recognized this and attempted to remove the lifetime subscription option years ago, replacing it with a $40 yearly subscription. After community backlash, he reverted to the old lifetime option.
2.2 In other similar games, monetization strategies would involve, for example, allowing players to pay a certain amount of protocoins for additional reinf in a city before reinf turn, or to escape a deadly battle by clicking on the button next to the battle in the battle screen... Implementing such features in AtWar would face backlash from the existing player base, myself included, even though I understand that this is the norm in such games, and large numbers of players still play them.
2.3 Premium prices have remained unchanged since 2014 - $6 monthly and $50 for a lifetime. At one point in 2015, the lifetime price even increased to $70. Over 10 years, from 2014 to 2024, the dollar's inflation rate is approximately 33%. Adjusted for inflation, the monthly premium should now be $8, and the lifetime premium $70.
These are some hard pills to swallow, but that's the reality. On a brighter note, here are some potential solutions I see. I'll address the issues in the same order:
1.1 Lately, I've found myself enjoying casual games, especially 24-hour ones. They take a maximum of 5-10 minutes a day, and with a bit of chatting in private messages, it might extend to 15 minutes at most. Since I have more free time than usual this month, I've joined two of these games and might join another, needing no more than 20 minutes a day on average.
1.2 The competitive scene needs to find ways to expand its base, possibly by returning to training new players. Instead of farming low ranks in duels, maybe offer to teach them a thing or two?
1.3 Let's acknowledge what Gilalad has accomplished with his Game of Thrones and Middle Earth scenarios. Out of the 88 currently active casual games, 15 are Gilalad's maps/scenarios (17%!). His scenarios are easy to learn, and all mechanics are clearly explained in the guides he creates and shares with all players via PM in every scenario started. Here are two examples of these guides for the scenarios I'm currently playing:
A Feast for Crows - V6 and
GoT: Seven Kingdoms. Around 60 or 70% of the players in these scenarios are low or high ranks I've never seen before. This is the way forward for the scenario community.
2.1 Lifetime premium should be removed and perhaps occasionally offered for 100+ bucks.
2.2 Consider offering a few more premium perks. Here are some reasonable examples:
- Priority in the picking queue - premium players pick first in quick games, followed by non-premium players. I don't see this as a major pay-to-win change.
- For 100 or so protocoins, a player could extend their turn by a minute (capped at one minute to prevent others from waiting too long). Multiple players could use this in the same turn, with non-requesting players receiving a message on the screen: "Turn is finished, waiting for players who requested an additional minute to complete their turn."
- An additional advanced setting to allow recruiting an extra general every 2/3/4 reinforcement turns in the capital. And, of course, an option to disable this, just like with extra cities, strategies, etc.
2.3 Adjust the prices and perhaps limit premium offers to 1, 3, and 6-month subscriptions.
Enough of yapping, bye.